Polymarket Agent - Prediction Market Strategies

Overview

The Polymarket Agent enables trading on prediction markets, where you can buy and sell shares based on the probability of real-world events. Trade on everything from elections to sports outcomes, economic indicators to entertainment events.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of future events. Share prices reflect the market's probability assessment:

• Shares trading at $0.70 = 70% probability

• If you're right, shares pay out $1.00

• If you're wrong, shares become worthless

Features

Market Categories

• Politics: Elections, policy decisions

• Sports: Game outcomes, championships

• Economics: GDP, inflation, Fed decisions

• Crypto: Price predictions, adoption metrics

• Entertainment: Award shows, box office

• Science: Research outcomes, discoveries

Trading Tools

• Real-time probability charts

• Order book depth

• Historical probability tracking

• Market sentiment indicators

• Volume analysis

Wallet Requirements

Polygon Network Wallet:

• MetaMask configured for Polygon

• WalletConnect compatible wallets

• Must have MATIC for gas fees

• USDC for trading

Getting Started

1. Connect Polygon Wallet

   • Switch to Polymarket Agent

   • Connect MetaMask or compatible wallet

   • Ensure Polygon network selected

   • Have MATIC for transaction fees

2. Fund with USDC

   • Bridge USDC to Polygon

   • Or swap tokens on Polygon

   • Keep MATIC for gas fees

3. Choose Your Markets

   • Browse available events

   • Review market rules carefully

   • Check resolution criteria

How to Trade

Buying Shares

1. Select a market

2. Choose YES or NO outcome

3. Enter number of shares

4. Review probability and potential profit

5. Confirm transaction

Selling Shares

• Sell anytime before resolution

• Market price determines profit/loss

• Can sell partial positions

Market Resolution

• Markets resolve based on predefined rules

• Winning shares pay $1.00

• Losing shares worth $0.00

Trading Strategies

Information Trading

• Trade on superior knowledge

• Research thoroughly

• Act on news quickly

Arbitrage

• Find mispriced markets

• Trade correlated events

• Exploit inefficiencies

Market Making

• Provide liquidity

• Profit from spreads

• Requires larger capital

Hedging

• Offset other risks

• Portfolio protection

• Correlation trading

Risk Management

• Position Sizing: Don't overexpose to single events

• Diversification: Trade multiple markets

• Time Decay: Consider resolution dates

• Liquidity: Check market depth before trading

Unique Features

Creating Markets

• Propose new prediction markets

• Set resolution criteria

• Earn fees as market creator

Market Comments

• Community discussion

• Share analysis

• Learn from others

API Trading

• Programmatic access

• Automated strategies

• Advanced analytics

Important Considerations

Resolution Risk

• Understand exact resolution criteria

• Some markets may have ambiguous outcomes

• Appeals process exists but takes time

Liquidity Risk

• Some markets have low volume

• May be hard to exit positions

• Spreads can be wide

Regulatory Risk

• Prediction markets face regulatory scrutiny

• Availability varies by jurisdiction

• Rules may change

Best Practices

1. Read the Rules: Every market has specific resolution criteria

2. Start Small: Learn with smaller positions

3. Follow News: Stay informed on your markets

4. Manage Risk: Don't bet more than you can lose

5. Be Patient: Some markets take months to resolve

Tips for Success

• Focus on markets you understand

• Don't trade on emotions

• Consider time value of locked capital

• Watch for new information that changes probabilities

• Use limit orders for better prices